From how the dollar will perform, to whether we should invest in property or shares, despite the past record of forecasters often ‘getting it wrong’, or playing it safe, consumers will continue to seek market predictions, almost as if they are searching to find that one person with the crystal ball.
Using last year as an example, many experts, including Mike Wilson from Morgan Stanley, predicted tech stocks would continue to head the market, allowing it to remain strong. What happened? The likes of Apple and Facebook fell over 40% from their highs. Even the S&P 500 ended the year well below the predicted 2840 with a concluding result of 2500.
So why are the experts so often wrong? To put it simply, it’s because they generally fall into two categories, and either way, they are playing it safe.